Supporting primary care through population growth
The city of York is growing rapidly, with a steep anticipated increase of residents by 2038. The existing general practice estate doesn’t have the capacity to absorb this population increase, so the NHS in York worked with City of York Council and NHS Property Services, using SHAPE to help develop an infrastructure delivery plan to respond to the population growth.
Currently, a number of larger practices serving 30,000-50,000 patients operate across the city from 44 small sites. Discussions with local practices and PCNs established that they wished to consolidate to fewer, more modern facilities, with the potential for co-location.
NHS Property Services used SHAPE to map proposed housing growth and the geographic locations of practices, and support strategic thinking.
SHAPE can help you understand the short and long term population forecasts for your area, with population projections available for 2027, 2032, 2037 and 2042. You can also overlay other attributes to help support your plans, such as an area’s level of deprivation, take up of Covid-19 vaccinations and environmental factors, such as risk of flooding, and the location of current primary care sites, such as GP practices, health centres and pharmacies.
The outcomes of the project included:
• A map of housing growth and general practice locations across York.
• Proposals for investment and consolidation which respond to the new housing developments.
• A potential future state map showing proposed York general practice locations in 2038.
• An NHS general practice investment profile for inclusion in the City of York’s infrastructure delivery plan, identifying a requirement of £81 million investment.
• Recommended contributions from housing developers of £18 million to provide general practice facilities for the city’s growing population.
If you’re in a region with a growing population, contact us to find out how you can use SHAPE to help plan your future strategy.
